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View Full Version : A turnaround (but it'll be ignored or trivialized)


mbossman2
10-11-2007, 10:09 AM
Trade Deficit Improves Significantly (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071011/economy.html?.v=2)

By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

Record Exports Help Push Trade Deficit to Lowest Level in 7 Months

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit fell to the lowest level in seven months, helped by record-high sales of American products and the declining value of the dollar. The deficit with China declined as imports edged down slightly following a string of high-profile recalls.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the deficit declined to $57.6 billion in August, down 2.4 percent from the July imbalance. It was lowest gap between exports and imports since January and a much better showing than had been expected.

While like anything, too much of something is a bad thing, but a weakening dollar appears to begin yielding some dividends.

As the dollar drops, US products become more attractive as imports and, in some cases, more attractive than domestic products.

Of course there is another edge to the sword: if the dollar drops too much then the costs of borrowing (necessary to fuel the growing exports) will begin to creep upward as interest rates must be higher to attract investors and compensate for the loss caused by declining value.

SARGE
10-15-2007, 10:24 PM
Am wondering what "products" we sell.

mbossman2
10-16-2007, 07:21 AM
a lot. we are the 2nd largest exporting nation behind Germany (2006 #'s)

Our largest exports are (by sector):
agricultural products (soybeans, fruit, corn) 9.2%, industrial supplies (organic chemicals) 26.8%, capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle parts, computers, telecommunications equipment) 49.0%, consumer goods (automobiles, medicines) 15.0% (as of 2003)

USA industry has been focusing on value add manufacturing: assembly of components made elsewhere and producing a product that is more valuable than the sum of it's components.

Take my company: we buy components from around the world: ASICs, power supplies, systems boards, memory etc and then assemble them into, arguably some of the top pieces of equipment in my industry.

and then we export those items to the tune of $15 Billion a year.

MAke no mistake, while the left may decry a weaker dollar (but not too weak), it will have a slow but definite impact on the trade balance: imported products cost more in the USA than their domestically made equivalent and US imports cost less than the domestically made equivalent.

This currency value mismatch can bring about the freeing up of significant amounts of US capital as US real assets are sold to the large amount of "stronger" currency spent and that new capital (henceforth tied down) more than likely will be reinvested to build the facilities and infrastructure necessary to make the items that are not being exported.

Which brings us around to tax policy: There are lots of folks who look at the capital gains tax rate as too low. The above secenario can be drastically curtailed by an increase in a capital gains tax as it creates a disincentive to sell and lose 8-20% (dpending upon proposal) to the government. No sale, no available capital to reinvest, less business growth.

Static money has no real power, money in motion does.

troysvihl
10-18-2007, 08:42 AM
"Turnaround" implies that trade deficits are harmful. The balance of trade is meaningless.

I've run a trade deficit with my local grocery store for over 30 years. Yet, we're both better off for it.